How much ride history with power data have you imported into Xert?
When was last BT (breakthrough) as indicated under your name on main page of XO?
What does “cranked up all the way” refer to?
What are your settings under Goals?
Is Freshness Feedback set to neutral? (0)
Starting at 3-1/2 stars with 20 hours/week will certainly affect predictions. 
Base training is well established if those were mostly endurance weeks at a polarized level (LTP-ish).
You don’t actually “follow Xert to the letter” like a prescription. XATA is a set of guidelines to consider with a range of possibilities on a day-to-day basis. You decide which direction to take things based on your time to train, freshness, and what you’d like to do today.
Lots of newbie tips posted here –
Beginner questions
Academy series videos are the quickest way to get up to speed – https://tinyurl.com/yfrucamh
FAQs here – Support Home – Xert