Are there plans to update the Xert Breakthrough algorithms so that the short duration (<5 minutes) don’t result in a complete unrealistic FTP. My FTP was approximately 260 watts until I rode 340 watts for 4:31 going for a KOM which resulted in a Gold Breakthrough and a FTP increase to 286 watts! Heck yes! 
But completely unrealistic.
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Is your peak power in Xert accurate? Feel free to share the whole signature, and check your overall signature for consistency here. If it’s too low, TP can be overestimated but that’s not an algorithm issue, but a data input issue. Do a max sprint when fresh to check.
That said, depending on your profile it doesn’t seem completely unreasonable… it implies you can hold 119% of TP for 4:30 which is not crazy if you are a low PP / HIE or more diesel athlete. If you’re more punchy it should be a higher % (lower TP) hence the first question re peak power being accurate
Check you PM for accuracy/error level, are you using same PM for all recorded data?
Set decay to aggressive; ride lower difficulty workouts indoors then go for another BT when you think your TP is aligned with your capability.
Post the BT report from Activity Details so we can see the ride profile.
How many BTs are shown on your XPMC (Progression tab) when set to 3 months?
Thank you for the quick response. I’m new to Xert since January. I may need some additional training. My complete signature is TP 286, HIE 19 kJ, PP 915, 8 minute w/kg 5, Lower TP 238.
There is no way I can ride 1 hour at 286 watts. 255-260 is realistic.
I think PP is realistic. But will test tomorrow.
8 minute power is a little high. I’ve recently tested close to 4.8.
Thank you for your help and ideas.
I have six breakthroughs over the past three months. Two bronze, two silver and two gold.
Yes. I think PM is accurate. 5ish watt difference when I record Zwift workout on my Wahoo ELEMNT Bolt.
That KOM attempt included an abrupt stop (vs natural failure) where the BT occurred.
That is a common source for an inflated signature bump.
You can flag the activity to remove the signature recalculation.
You can also manually adjust the numbers below the chart to what you consider a more reasonable bump, run Extract, then Save.
Keep in mind your power curve in Xert is based upon both actual sampling (X-minutes @ Y watts) and a theoretical extraction. I.e. you exceeded your current MPA somewhere along the curve and therefore other points on the curve need to be adjusted to maintain the “curve”.
On a perfect day under perfect conditions (think indoor velodrome at sea level 
) how long could you ride at 286 or whatever value you decide to use?
Doesn’t need to be close to an hour for the value to be useful for training purposes.
TP doesn’t equal 60 minute power… (also FTP doesn’t strictly equal hour power but don’t want to derail the thread)… if you look at your power curve you’ll typically see the one hour estimate is lower… I think of it more like a CP estimate (over simplifying things) which often ends up a bit higher than FTP if derived from shorter efforts… but not the 10% delta you think. Maybe knock 10w off if you’re worried.
That said, it does not look so far out, also looking at the BT pattern. It’s worth noting that the algorithm isn’t simply converting an average power over X minutes to an estimated average power over 60 minutes. It will have taken into account that your effort wasn’t steady and in fact the last minute was the hardest effort, and that was already when you were fatigued / had drawn MPA down. I suspect you could do more than 340w for that duration if well paced. And you may surprise yourself with how long you can hold a number at least close to your new TP estimate (when truly fresh) though such tests are typically very unpleasant if you haven’t trained hard long efforts.
Curious how your PP test goes and whether that changes things materially
It’s not about short efforts, it’s about pushing them until the end. It’s not the raise but the decline in power which will set the new signature. The steeper the decline, the more TP and less HiE. If it is flatter, HiE is predicted to be higher. Backpedaling right out of a max effort will increase TP in an unrealistic manner as the system calculates that your HiE-tank was empty at that moment.
Two breakthroughs from myself to compare:
First one is a breakthrough where I stopped pushing with a bit of stuff left as soon as I could not hold power any more. You see the powerline was a lot steeper than the MPA-line. This gave me a big TP increase and HiE decrease in the breakthrough:
second one is a more realistic one, especially the last bout where my real power keeps pushing almost until my all out power fell to TP. This did hurt for sure, but only for two minutes and it gave a more realistic signature. HiE also increased as expected.
tldnr: The longer you push into your declining MPA the better the resulting signature will be.
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