What have I missed about XATA?

Those predicted gains under Goals vary by Athlete type and IR setting. Try selecting different entries and watch what changes.
Not to dash your hopes :wink: but it’s a theoretical value you could obtain if you able to handle projected TL hours and intensity over time compared to where you’re at now.
Reality lies somewhere in between. :sob:
By the time I got through Build phase my projected number was pretty close.
I believe the prediction is based on x% improvement per week for current ramp rate.
At some point you’ll start hitting a limit of what you can handle and attain during a particular training block. You may end up dialing things down or take more rest days in between or possibly insert recovery week (off-season setting) before changing back to desired IR. In this respect the number is a moving target.

I didn’t do any kind of gym work with weights during that time but I was exercising with resistance bands and kettlebell on my rest days (usually Monday). Just basic stuff.

Related –
How accurate are the TP predictions for the training programs? I think mine is way off - General - Xert Community Forum (xertonline.com)