My current training goal is a MTB race in Jan 2025. I set it up in Xert as an event based program. I have no fit file, so I set up the goal of a 2.5 hour mtb race. That 2.5 hours should give me an acceptable result. My progression charts read as though my TP will decline as I approach the event, but my training load is going way up between now and then. It just doesn’t make sense to me. I’m concerned I set up my program/event incorrectly. I feel challenged by my workouts and in general feel like my powers (TP HIE and Peak) are all getting better. Perhaps my race goal needs more info than just 2.5 hours. Thanks for any info.
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What signature decay are you using? You could try a slower rate
Also, have your recent breakthroughs been truly all out, or have they just happened… I ask because it looks like your threshold power has been declining for a while despite increasing training load, while you say you feel fitter. Having too high / aggressive decay rate also makes it easier to achieve ‘breakthroughs’, but if your signature has declined too far, the ‘breakthrough’ isn’t necessarily representative of your full capabilities unless you really went ‘all out’
I appreciate your input wescaine. My signature decay is set at the "optimal/default. I am just finishing build phase and moving into peak phase. Regarding my breakthroughs, one or two of them were all out and the rest more of the ‘just happened’ type. I suspect I am in need of some serious “all out” breakthroughs. I’d like to understand why these breakthoughs are so important to my plan, if you can explain.
Hi @hokephyllis,
It’s possible that Xert didn’t have a sufficient idea of your Peak Power (and HIE) until fairly recently. If your Peak Power (and HIE) are underestimated, it’s possible for your Threshold to be slightly overestimated. Now that you’ve done some max effort sprints recently, Xert has a better idea of your entire fitness signature.
Knowing the correct Max Power, we could recalculate the signature going back a bit further and I’m guessing you’d see a slightly lower TP in Oct.
Cheers!
Thanks ManofSteele. I appreciate your info. It’s a bit heart breaking to accept that the more Xert “gets to know me”, she pulls my numbers down. But, it is what it is. We shall keep riding and training.
Hi Phyllis,
Looks like you had quite a variation in your TP calculations from your breakthroughs since August. There was that big jump in October and then a steady decline back to numbers more in line with where they were previously. This can happen in a variety of conditions and it’s not always a reflection of losing fitness. We don’t have data previous to August so we’d have to likely do a bit of guesswork to explain how this can happen. Rest assurred, you training volume is increasing in the right direction and would expect your real fitness to be improving. It might take a full-court-press breakthrough to see the latent increase that exists to show itself.
Wrt, the decline after today, that appears like an anomaly from a previous forecast and can happen if you are intentionally looking to generate a changeover in fitness focus from more threshold focus to a more pure specificity (like a Pure Puncheur for example). That changeover may in fact place more emphasis on your High Intensity Energy and Peak Power than on your Threshold Power in your training. This can show as a decline in TP on this chart but an increase in your 4 minute power for example. A way to address this is to pick a goal/event/race that results in an increase in TP and this chart will end up showing that increase. The Program tab provides the details of how all this will happen and come together for you.
Send an email to support if you are in need of more specfic information on this and our team can review things together with you.
Thank you. Great additional info. I will stay the course, keep up with the training and try to work in a purposeful Gold breakthrough.
You’ve already heard from the experts with wider explanations for what you’re seeing, but on this specific point, breakthroughs are how Xert determines your fitness signature parameters which try to define your performance capabilities in the short term (up to an hour… other factors start to become important for much longer events), and the more accurate / up to date this is, the better. It’s important for training load monitoring (also in a granular way eg splitting low TL from high TL and peak TL), training prescription (so you target the right combination low high peak TL for your goals… don’t train too hard or too easy…) and also so you have an indication when to recover. Over time, Xert analyses how your signature responds to training loads so that it can better predict future improvements… another reason more (good quality / consistent) data is better
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