Prediction of power curves at a given training load

My FTP is now 290 watts, and my training load is 65,9 (appr 2,8 stars), doing 7,3 hours a week. In 6 weeks it will be 312 watts with a traing load of 83,9 doing 9,3 hours a week as per Xerts predictions.

  1. Can Xert predict (to some extent) where I will max out on the power curve given my training history?

  2. And is it possible for me to improve if I don’t increase the number of hours, lets say after 18 weeks doing 9,3 hours a week, will my power curve continue to increase?


I literally just started a very similar post to yours at the same time haha :smiley:

Trying to answer your questions though:

  1. I don’t think Xert or anyone really, is able to make that kind of prediction. You might be able to handle an insanely high TL. Or maybe you‘ll max out very soon because your body won’t be able to recover fast enough anymore.

  2. You can always add more intensity, if you don’t have more time available. That will result in a higher TL for the same amount of time. Obviously that strategy will quickly lead to you overtraining and not getting in enough recovery anymore though!

Just to give you an idea here are my stats:

TL: 94
TP: 241W
HIE: 22.1kJ
PP: 1070W
Weight: 70kg

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In 1., do you mean can it model other points higher up the power curve inc max power? In which case the answer I think is yes, as you can see predicted values for different athlete types / focus durations (but am not sure what it assumes re your future training to get there… and so how accurate it is)

If you mean the maximum you could ever reach, I’d say no given there are many other factors, especially training volume.

Thanks. I was thinking of the latter