Forecast AI - When do I test for a BT?

It appeared to me today - my planner looks pretty good and makes sense for my goal.

However - when do I test for a BT now? Its not scheduled - do I still use old school Xert logic and schedule to do a BT test every (4) weeks and maybe on a HIT day? Or maybe the day after the planner has me taking a rest day?

Maybe I missed something and we are not doing BT tests anymore?

With the recents updates, BT’s shouldn’t be required since the system should better track your day-to-day fitness, regardless of the Signature Decay Method you choose. You can do them as you see fit, especially if you feel that there is a latent increase that, unless you get the BT, can affect your workout targets. You can experiment with Optimal/Small/No Decay to see how big of a latent breakthrough the system is seeing.

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@xertedbrain sorry can you explain a bit more?

Does signature decay apply within Forecast and what do you mean by latent?

Asking because I thought the same thing today about needing a breakthrough and tried for one because it was a HIT day and I was using a Zwift race for my workout which typically produce BTs. (Wasn’t to be today)

Also if I hit one, will AI take that into account and forecast a new higher signature for my target event to reach? Or will it see that I’ve ‘hit my target’ and focus on maintaining that through till event day?


“Latent” means your signature is slighly underestimated and you have a breakthrough coming.

There is no decay applied to future forecasted activities. But with the recent changes, XFAI should increase your Target Goal (not Event since it’s just based on training loads) when you get a breakthrough.

When Armando responded (which I appreciate all the killer work and time he gives/does), I also had to think about this since I have all previous Xert knowledge in my head still.

I think what Armando is saying, is that a BT will naturally occur during an outdoor ride/race if your signature has changed or if you are finding your “indoor” workouts to be easy you need to try for a BT (I think that what he means by latent).

We need to remember that Xert does not operate on a FTP only basis and your signature fluctuates a lot. You don’t “need” your peak numbers showing to increase your fitness or ability’s.

I hope this helps, or maybe im completely wrong.