Forecast AI Taper Week

[xertedbrain (Armando Mastracci)]

@gduffley

I’m not entirely sure what I should have done differently with Event Readiness. I used the “Auto-calculate Readiness” feature, which set the value to 1.9. I imagine that if I had entered with a higher level of fitness, I could have selected a readiness value of 1.0, and the plan would have brought me into the event feeling fresher.

1.9 seems pretty good to me so really not much you could do here. It may have given you higher targets to reach and thus less flexibility in your plan, is the main drawback to better ER values.

Since I didn’t have the fitness to support that level of freshness, the algorithm seems to be balancing recovery with the potential for continued gains, leaning more toward additional training. That feels like a riskier approach to me. The extra training might pay off with a fitness bump that still allows for good performance, but it also increases the chance of arriving at the event under-recovered and having a rough day.

We’re looking at this actually and there might be some variation between how the main Forecast AI algorithm computes the taper compared to the Adapt Forecast function. You can see this for yourself if you Run Foreast AI by clicking Change Program. Forecast AI provides a bit more freshness leading into the event.

If the plan leaned more toward freshness, I might sacrifice some peak potential, but I think the average outcome would be more reliable and I’d feel more confident lining up on race day. I really wish there were a way to preview or explore that more conservative, freshness-focused approach. I’ve had good results with XFAI and want to feel like I’ve followed it through to the event without feeling like I’m rolling the dice on race-day performance.

Try the Forecast AI option and see if that aligns things a bit better. It seems to me like it does and we can make an adjustment.

Thanks for your patience and help.