I’m wondering what the optimal decay method should be for Xert’s Forecast AI?
If I set Forecast AI to increase my power over the next 6-8 weeks but leave the decay method as optimal do I need to continue to try to achieve breakthroughs to ‘express’ my fitness signature or is there a more optimal decay method?
By following the Forecast AI plan strictly under my parameters (5-7 hrs/wk and generally 1hr-1:30 persession available) there doesn’t seem to be any scope or specific workouts set to achieve breakthroughs unless I specify them changing focus etc. Am I expected to do this or maybe perform an outdoor unstructured ride and achieve a BT purposefully?
Also, If I do achieve a BT and my power is updated whether positively or negatively, how does Forecast AI handle this will it continue on the same planned trajectory, assuming I need to force recalculation by adapting the forecast to adjust the plan.
Alternatively if on a Forecast AI plan should I set the decay method to None - Training load matched, but, then if I miss sessions…
Hi @colincostello, you can use any decay method with Forecast AI!
We changed how decay settings work a while back so that signature ‘decay’ should be less of an issue, especially if you’re training most days.
There’s no direct need to push for a BT if you don’t want to. Xert uses your historical data to uncover how you respond to training and uses that plus the forecasted training to predict changes in your fitness! I haven’t had a Breakthrough in a long, long time, but my signature has tracked nicely with my training loads while progressing through an XFAI program
You could adapt forecast after a BT/near-BT if you want. If you manage a Breakthrough (or Fakethrough), you’ll carry the “extra” gains (or marginal losses) with you through the rest of the program
Thanks for your detailed reply, I’ve been toying with Forecast AI for a bit but generally managing my level on continuous improvement (I will miss the pacer) while doing other/alternative training. However I’ve taken the plunge and when I looked at it I thought it was going to be a somewhat demotivational if I was trying to stick to the plan but fighting a decay battle.
Interesting to hear that the settings changed, I think I noticed this as I did a re-calculation of my signature some time back, which I needed due to some data anomalies caused by an incorrectly calibrated power meter. Once I resolved that I noticed that the system tracked where I was much better so definitely an improvement - Sláinte!
