Xert BreakThrough estimation too high

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1

Hi all,

Is my Xert Breakthrough number too high?

I’ve been using Xert for about a year and really rate the Breakthrough feature — the FTP/TP estimates have always been close to reality.

In April, my Xert TP was 295, and my 20-minute outdoor test came out around 315.

Since May/June I’ve started training more — gym, sauna, higher volume — and I ran Critical Power tests on 23/24/27 June: 3 min (399W), 5 min (377W), 12 min (326W). Xert’s Breakthrough estimate at the time was 303, which lined up well with those numbers.

Then on 1 July I had a Breakthrough of 323, and on 11 July another one at 333.

I’m heading into a new training block now and a bit worried these numbers seem too high. I may have gained a few watts — I have been feeling strong since the last block — but I wanted to check if anyone else has run into something similar.

Sharing my Strava for reference: https://www.strava.com/athletes/39759679

Regards,
Yar

2

Post the BT report from that activity.
BTreportIcon
If you feel the TP bump isn’t warranted you can always flag the activity to exclude the sig extraction while retaining the strain analysis.
See: How to Verify Your Fitness Signature — and what to do if it seems wrong – Knowledgebase