Why am I so far off Forecast Power Curve (and starting Power Curve)


Noticed Power Curve page now gives a predicted curve for Forecast, starting curve and current curve. Think it is really interesting.

However I am now 2 weeks from my event date, and my power curve /signature is below where I started. My Training load has reached the XFAI targets.

Is this meaning that I’d have a significant latent breakthrough if I pushed for it, but because I am doing the forecast workouts I’m not doing rides that would BT? I’d have thought the tracking of workouts alone should be increasing it to the forecast amount anyway given the TL is at that point?

Or is this because I had a signature correction part way through (big drop in TP, big rise in HIE → manually corrected it only to have a BT cause it again)?

Power curve, XPMC and Training Load below

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TL increase has plateaued along with any further predicted increase in signature values.
With two weeks to go a taper week is also coming soon.
I suggest you validate your signature now, which you can do anytime you’re feeling fresh and up for the challenge. For example, it looks like you have a rest day scheduled followed by a HIT day.
On the HIT day pick one of the “fitness test” workouts to ride instead. That could be one closest to your HIT ratio recommendation or the shortest one and ride more after to reach your XSS target for the day.

If indoors, ride the workout in Slope mode and make sure to ride to a failure point on any intervals designed for that purpose (full MPA drawdown).

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Thanks @ridgerider2. Basically sounding like it’s a ‘latent breakthrough’ type scenario (hopefully).

Will probably have to wait a few days to validate it as I’ve been off form for about a week with Low Intensity Efforts having HR bpm 10-20 higher than before.

Actually quick follow-up Q. If doing something like the “Under Pressure” BT is there a ‘best method’?

Assuming I actually am still in a state to semi-choose - Wondering if that 10 s sprint should be maximal sprint to failure (so a NM 800 watt surge for example that then fades down over 10-20 s to failure) or whether I should be doing the 10 s at the indicated power (~550 watts) then trying to hold on longer (i.e. 10 s at 550 W, then drop back to 110-120% of TP and hold it for as long as possible being may 90 s to 2 mins?)

Asking because if I am going to test, I want BT that addresses/assesses my TP more clearly. My experience has been that BTs increasing HIE/PP are ‘easy’ because I can rely on neuromuscular effort to sprint at 800+ watts and hold the leg speed to deplete MPA rapidly. This always leads to BTs that increase HIE/PP and drop TP/LTP. However, when I then try for a VO2 max workout I can only hold 5 min MMP for 60-90 secs before reaching HR max suggesting to me HIE is too high. But if I drop it manually I’ll just get another BT taking it back up the next time I sprint.

Some of it is no doubt terrain as where I live is flat, slightly rolling and urban so holding 300 watts is not that feasible vs having a solid continuous gradient to push out the power against out of necessity and for an extended period. Meanwhile the overheating on trainer is a real barrier.

Indoors I suggest Slope mode and exceed target watts if able (without blowing up) and exceed duration (if necessary) on any long interval that you ride to a failure point.
You are not monitoring watts and duration in this respect. Main idea is to measure your max performance under fatigue (MPA drawdown) plus a max sprint or two to prove your PP.
If you haven’t tried the shortest workout before the total time over TP is around 10 minutes so overheating shouldn’t be a factor indoors.
For workouts with sprint intervals, you simply need to demonstrate your max power. No need to ride until failure.
“Under Pressure” takes a different approach. The max effort sprint attempt is performed at the end of the long interval to failure wherever that might occur. Right before you are about to fail, spin up, stand if you want, and go as hard as you can for at least 5-7 secs before you collapse.

Ronnestad/Tabata-style sets tend to verify HIE best but any effort that draws down MPA in steps to points where you can exceed your current signature (or tap it = Near BT) is sufficient to validate your signature.

Outdoors you will need to ride somewhere where traffic and terrain and people aren’t going to hinder these efforts. That could be challenging to find inner city. :slight_smile:

Thanks for the advice!!! A good session.

Need to get better at pedalling smoothly in slope mode as I think the up/down fatigued me a bit more than steady state which may explain TP not quite matching ‘predicted’ but still very happy after looking at the time at 270 watts and thinking there’s no way!