Somehow my calculated fitness signature is giving me a very peak power which has increased from 1000 to 1600 in the last week (despite me not coming anywhere close to this). My fit file had a spurious power peak, so I deleted the workout and reuploaded and recalculated my progression, but now my FTP is ~25W lower than previously and my peak power is still the same (my FTP at the beginning of the year is also unreasonably high).
It looks like the issue sorted itself out, at least when I took a look into your data. When older activities are deleted/reuploaded, it takes the server some time to recalculate the XSS/Fitness signatures on subsequent activities.
Well, I found out why this was happening and could alleviate the problem somewhat. Essentially I did some training on a spinning bike without a power meter. I did 3x5x30s sprint session so I entered this with a sprint focus and the XSS score calculated for a similar workout I created. This strongly skews my peak power. What I did not was change the focus to puncheur and it’s not so strong. It seems like manual activities have a very strong influence on the progression.
Yes, manual activities have the same weight as real activities. So we emphasize the importance of inputting XSS, Focus, and specificity correctly. See our FAQ about entering manual activities on the support page.