Threshold power projection is super wonky

When I started my program and set improvement rate of Aggressive-1, with target event date of June 1, it was giving me an estimated threshold power increase of about 40 watts. (which I suspected it was hugely overestimated).

So I am now in the early build phase, and so far have followed the program to a T. I once fell behind slightly in mid base phase during one week, but quickly put the dial back in the middle.

So now I’m looking at the predicted threshold power increase, and for some reason this week it the estimated TP gain by event date is 15 watts less than last week’s estimate.

This doesn’t make any sense to me. I have been doing exactly what the algorithm is been telling me to do.