Thinking about potential TP vs training load

So I’m playing around with my goals and settings, and this question focuses on training load and TP. I’m currently at a TP of 246 with a TL of 55.5. I have a target event that’s about 5 months out, and if I set my IR to Aggressive-1, I’ll have a TP of 315 with a TL of 147.5. That’s almost pro-level/5 stars but only getting a TP of 315?

That makes me think that I just don’t have a lot of potential, or maybe it’s better said I have to work very hard for gains. I’m currently 88kg so it takes a fair amount to move my carcass around thus my disappointment.

Any thoughts on this or am I overlooking other factors?

Just because you can forecast being able to complete a really big TL doesn’t mean it is achievable for you.

To jump from 246 to 315 is well over a 22% increase on a previously good number. That is very ambitious.

Personally I prefer less ambitious but achievable targets (SMART).

I probably have not answered your question but do believe that you need to understand what you cam commit to as a TL and see where that gets you.

Thanks, John.

I probably didn’t say this as clear as I should. I’m not about to take on a IR like that. I doubt that’s even possible to hold an IR like that for that long. I think my question is more along the lines if we set time aside, if I train at nearly a 5-star level will I “only” hit 315 watts TP?

I’m trying to see if that’s approaching my genetic potential…and tbh, I’m not sure if I even have the time nor desire to train that much.

I have no idea, it all depends on how well trained you are currently and your genetic potential.

I have long wondered how accurate the longer term ( 5 months in this case) forecasted improvements are.

Much of the answer to your question depends on factors that Xert has very little knowledge of. For example how long you have been cycling and your training history during that time. Xert can help you manage your training effectively up to the event and also help you manage your effort during the event. I would not regard the 315 as anything other than a linear extrapolation based on averages. Fitness gains are often not linear.

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The numbers given by Xert seem to be reasonable. Your current TL means that your are training on a regular basis for a couple hours per week, so it is difficult to expect quick gains anymore.

Personally, I would be very unhappy, if I find out that I could achieve FTP of 450 W with more training. This would mean, that I made really bad choices in my life. Namely, I took wrong career instead of being pro cyclist :sweat_smile: