Coming to he end of my 3rd month on Xert, switching from Trainerroad. Haven’t missed but one workout in the training plan due to travel for work. Xert initially set my TP at 197, then bumped me to 218 after a zwift race. Since then, most weeks I’m getting extra XSS thanks to the Sat. Group rides. I’ve had several breakthroughs but my TP continually declined to 209. Why would it do that when I’m following the plan and/or getting extra XSS? It bumped me back to 213 after today’s breakthrough, but I don’t seem to be able to gauge via any clear metric that I’m improving.
You need to look at more than just TP to track improvement. Your whole signature including PP and HIE define your power curve. I would keep track of your 4 minute from the screen shot, as that is what you are trying to improve. It’s possible for a BT to cause TP to decrease and HIE to increase, resulting in an increase in 4-min power for example.
One other consideration: have the BTs all been all-out and done when fresh? If not, it’s possible they are (slightly) underestimating your current level
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You could also look at what ‘decay’ setting you are at. I’ve found ‘slow decay’ works better for me rather than the default, when I use the default setting I seem to lose TP fairly quickly even when training.
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Post your XPMC set to a Year.
Your TP is going to float up/down based on TL and decay setting.
You are a long way out from your High and Peak projections and doubling of TL by October.
Is your goal to ride a 12-hour hilly road event? Have you ridden it before?
Readiness level indicates you won’t be prepared with current forecast.
At what point do you plan to reduce your 3 days/week weight training to maintenance and increase time in the saddle as your primary training?
The event is a 12 hour Ultra race in West Texas in October. The route isn’t released, but I suspect it’ll have 10k+ in elevation. I have ridden in the area but not the race, though I have done quite a few 6, 12, and 24 hour ultras before. I reduced the gym time to 2x/week for over a month, with 4x/week on the bike currently. This is what xpmc currently shows:
It seems to me that your TP was ~223 in March and has dropped a bit. However after 5 months of training it will rise to about ~223!! Not exactly motivational.
not sure where strength training came from based on the information you provide.
And yes, there is no evidence of improvement. Sorry.