Something's wrong with the progression?

[GoustiFruit]

So, I followed a Base-Build-Peak program, Climber focus. It started in October and finished on the January, 29th. Starting TP was around 245W, the projection was to end at 262W. I got “sick” (cold) 2 times in January, had to stop training for about 3 days. Each time, my signature went back, almost to the starting point. Once, I also had to do the “VIRTUAL - Espresso | Weekend Group Ride” workout, I didn’t finish, not because it was too hard, but because 3h on the HT was too boring for me. But Xert cut off again watts from my signature. So nowadays it tells me that my TP is 250W.

Very disappointing. Though, during Winter, I prefer to have a somewhat under evaluated signature, as I know that my numbers are also lower on the home trainer than outdoors (I can’t finish indoors workouts that I can do outdoors). Not a big problem, as outdoors season is only in a couple of months, so I have time to reach more decent numbers.

But now, as the B-B-P program ended, I switched to a Breakaway Specialist focus, wanting to do more “punchy” workouts. Whatever the program I select, Xert doesn’t project anything positive. For ex., I can’t even hope to gain 1 W:

Last year, outdoors, training by myself, I could hold 250+W for one hour. This Winter, I’ve been training on Xert more seriously and consistently than what I’ve been doing these last few years. Yet, Xert doesn’t try to push me enough. Another ex.: yesterday, I did a Ronnestad workout. Very hard workout, but it seemed “easier” than I remember. Yet, Xert cut again 1W on the 3 signature parameters. I was not doing that workout to get a breakthrough, just following the plan. I remember that, back in time when I was using Xert, the progression was more significant and “realistic”. Spending days doing LSD workouts, my TP was slowly increasing. Nowadays, whatever the workouts I do, 6 days/week, for months, the signature doesn’t move.

Again, not crippling, but disappointing, as I know that I spent a lot of time this Winter on the HT, and it improved my endurance, I can feel it. But the numbers on Xert, and the projections, seem off.

Anyway, I selected the program “Goal”, “forced” it to gain 18W by March, 15th, and the Planner is filled with “Low Intensity Training/Pure Endurance” and only 1 or 2 “High Intensity Training” per week. It seems very light for a “Breakaway Specialist” focus. I had more intensity workouts during the last Build-Peak phases for a Climber focus.

[ManofSteele (Scott Steele)]

Hi there,

Thanks for your message - and I can appreciate where you’re coming from. I had a look at your screenshots (and your account), and it actually shows that you’re sitting at nearly 4-star training status with a Training Load of ~100, which is already quite high. What this means is that you’ve more or less hit a fitness plateau based on the amount of training time you currently have available.

In short: to continue making progress - especially in areas like 5-minute power - you’ll generally need to do more than what your body is already used to. And if your available training time is maxed out, then we wouldn’t expect significant further improvement unless something changes.

There are a few tweaks that can help you squeeze more out of your current schedule:

• Increase your XSS per Hour setting (e.g. from 100 → 120)
• Adjust your polarization ratio (e.g. from 4:1 to 3:1)
• Reassess your Max Weekly Hours, if there’s any room to bump it slightly (try adding an extra ~30 min twice a week, if possible)

In fact, when I tried those adjustments, I was able to forecast some improvement in your 5-minute power:

Also worth noting: it’s been about three months since your last Breakthrough, so your current fitness signature might be underestimating what you’re capable of. We often suggest trying to get a fresh Breakthrough before starting a training program; otherwise, your plan may be aiming too low.

Finally, it’s true that high-intensity workouts (HIIT) are efficient at building fitness, but they require more recovery and can’t be done every day. That’s why, as your training status improves (e.g. as you accumulate more stars in your Xert profile), endurance riding becomes more important - not because it’s magical, but because it’s a very sustainable way to add volume (e.g. XSS) without overloading recovery demands. Of course, that means more time, and… well, that’s just part of the sport sometimes!

If you’re up for experimenting, some athletes explore block periodization or alternating intensity patterns, but these can be more extreme and aren’t always sustainable or practical depending on your schedule.

Hope this helps explain why the system is giving you the results it has been.

Cheers!

[GoustiFruit]

Yeah, I know that I’d need to go for a breakthrough session, but I hate those workouts on the home trainer, I’m afraid that the numbers would go too high and make the next workouts too hard
That’s why I was expecting Xert to better adapt my signature over time by analyzing the workouts done. Back in the time (years ago), I remember seeing my LT going somewhere from 200 to almost 240 (probably a little bit overrated) doing the Winter LSD workouts. And I remember that I was in the same range of hours of training (max 10-12h/week) and I would reach the 290W of TP the next Spring (again, a bit overrated as in reality I would only be able to hold ≃270W for one hour).

I’m still afraid that, if I follow the planned workouts (low intensity), my signature won’t move a lot: the prescribed workouts are what I was doing during the base phase.

PS: yes, when I forced the “Goal” program, I got a message telling me that I’d need around 15h/w.

[ridgerider2]

If you completed Cheung CX - Ronnestad –

or A Pain That I’m Used To –

…and came away with any sort of “easier” appraisal then you have a latent BT waiting to be expressed.
You can prove that next time by riding the Ronnestad sets continuously in Slope mode, extending duration or upping watts or adding another interval until a failure point is reached by the end of each set.
Cheung should force this issue if your signature is valid –

You want the same to occur with A Pain for at least one set –

1 watt is normal noise. So is 5 watts down if decay does its thing without sufficient rise in TL or punching through MPA now and then. Those punches can be anywhere along your curve.
Three months without a BT is too long. The stale warning appears after three weeks. That means do something which can be any sort of max effort under fatigue.
My new favorite method is to leverage XMB for doing that (Garmin or Android) – which you can do at any time. A Ronnestad workout in Slope mode would be my second choice.

Every progression requires an upward trend in one table value or another. If not, the prediction reflects a lateral move that is unlikely to produce much if any change.
If limited by max hours, you’ll have to add more punch (high/peak) into the equation as Scott suggests.

IMO the best way to peak is to start in the valley.
How much downtime do you schedule during a season?
How toothy are your year-over-year progressions? (TL deltas)
Here’s my five peak 5-year profile (XPMC set to TL) –

These are all BBP progressions including periods of rising TP due solely to the increase in TL.
I did insert BT efforts occasionally on HIT days if the 3-week warning appeared.
I also perform a fitness test of some sort at the end of a program to verify where I’m at.

[GoustiFruit]

I put a Zwift cog/click on my HT, I still need to learn how that works with Rouvy/Xert All of my workouts have been done in ERG mode. And I haven’t played with the Magic Buckets yet. So, going for a BT in this situation…