Projected fitness predicts a decrease?

Ok, so I sound bitter, but hear me out :slight_smile: I’ve been training for the last 5 weeks on endurance work, and the projected fitness has been bouncing around all over the place. At one point it was projecting my threshold to go up by 15W (alright!), but today it’s projected a net fitness decrease. I can understand stagnating, but how can 5 weeks of steady training result in a fitness decrease? My form is positive, so it’s not like I’m hammering out a load of training. It might be nice to have a little more visibility into what these numbers really mean if they are going to be displayed so prominantly.

Hi Ollie. The projected fitness numbers are based on your previous week’s XSS, divided into peak, high and low strain scores. Projected Threshold Power looks at your low training load as of a week ago and compares it to your training load as of now and if it is less, you’ll see a decline over 6 weeks. If it is more, you’ll see an increase. For your Athlete Type fitness measure, it uses all three training loads and so whether it goes up or down all depends on where each were a week ago and where they are as of now and how each influence your particular athlete type’s fitness measure.

You may want to check where you were 7 days ago and where you are as of now and see if you’ve been able to maintain your training load or whether it has gone up or down over the period.

We (as I’m sure many of our users too) are looking forward to being able to schedule your planned workouts and activities in the future and see how they will impact your numbers. Then we get to Phase II and your impulse-response parameters can be tuned individually, it’ll be very interesting and will likely improve on our ability to project results into the future.

Awesome, that’s really helpful information - thank you!