New TP after breakthrough seems high

Hi, I’ve been a user for a couple of months now and my Breakthroughs and TP progression have been very reasonable up until last night.

I do a Zwift race every Wednesday that usually has some sort of breakthrough, and last night’s certainly went well, but by breakthrough pushed my TP up 22 watts (9.3%). I did expect it to go up maybe 5-7 watts (just feeling strong lately), however this result seems excessive.

Can someone check my results to see if something looks off? Or should I just try workouts at this new TP and see what happens?

Not sure if this works, switched it to public and it gave me this link:


Hi, well done on the BT :smiley:
Hard to tell from one activity but typically trust the algorithm… you do seem to be able ride around / above threshold for 40 min and still have power to sprint so it’s probably not miles out.
If you post a pic of your progression chart we can see how it tracks against your training load, and how long since your last BT etc. for more context.
Get ready for tougher workouts too :wink:

Thanks for the response Wes. Here is my progress chart since I started (roughly 2 months). I was coming off injury/rehab and knew I would regain some fitness early, but you can see I flattened out for a while…then the big BT.

Looks possible to me but tough to be sure — TL has increased which helps TP… It looks like TP has increased faster than TL, but then you’re recovering from injury where bigger increases could be possible… perhaps slight doubt is that it was a rather short breakthrough effort / time near MPA, which apparently can be a bit less reliable.
I’d live with it and see how the training goes… Looks like you are on optimal decay setting? If so, even if wrong, it won’t be wrong for too long…

I am on optimal decay. I’ll try a workout at the new TP and see if I survive. I do remember my Tuesday workout feeling easier than usual (at my old TP), but 22 watts…yikes…maybe I’ll report back. :sweat_smile:

Yeah curious to hear and hopefully even higher again in a couple of weeks!
The other thing you can look at to get an idea is the ‘advanced MPA’ tab of the BT activity. You can then select ‘previous’ (under the chart) and it’ll show you your effort with the old signature. I can’t see that on the public activity, but it will likely show that you did in fact perform well above the old signature eg you did a lot of the ride with MPA drawn down, and despite that had power to burn at the end… and what looks like recovery (eg increasing MPA between 15min and 30min) with the new signature, probably wasn’t with the old one (power still around your old TP).

I did “Working Man” last night at the new 257 TP and it went well. I went with a 2 difficulty endurance ride as suggested, which I think matched up well with my fatigue level.

Here is the advanced MPA from Wed. I’ve only ever broke through on the final sprints, so it’s weird to see them earlier on in the race.

I think that was a clue you were ready to jump to a new level rather than see a minor rise.

Is it correct to assume you are riding a classic trainer, exporting the workouts as ZWO, and recording the workouts on Zwift?

I’m on a direct drive smart trainer and yes, exporting the ZWO files to Zwift. They are not “smart” workouts.

The early BT Is clear evidence the old signature was too low, and you are stronger, so would go with it. The MPA track for the new signature looks much better.
Also good the endurance workouts still feel good

Do you ride most workouts in resistance mode rather then ERG?

I only use ERG mode for workouts. Usually I’ll make up some sort of cadence goal to keep it interesting, varying from slow (70), avg (80-90), high (90+)

Thanks for the responses, it actually helps mentally to now feel it’s not a mistake and that I can do it, versus talking myself into failing at the new goal.

Based on your power graph I figured you were riding in resistance mode not ERG.
In ERG mode wouldn’t power more closely align with target power?
Maybe it’s different when exported as a ZWO for Zwift. It’s been awhile since I have done any trainer workouts on anything other than the Xert Player or Connect IQ player on my 1030.
Have you done the same workout in the past using the Xert Player for comparison?

Oh, what I posted was a Zwift Race.

My workouts look more like what you’re showing.