Hello,
I’ve done a (big) ride on zwift this evening that wasn’t planned, obviously I’ve got the little red dot that tells me to adapt my programme but if I do that my focus power goes from 244 to 240W and my training load goes from 47 at the end of the programme to 41, which is huge! I don’t understand, this ride gives me a bit of a head start on my programme but it looks like I’ll be less trained at the end, I don’t understand…
Or has xert determined that my target was too high thanks to this ride?
Without adaptation (no purple before the ride of today)
The magenta bars indicate that something is wrong with that forecasted training… Try hovering over the magenta bars in your program and look at what Xert is telling you.
It looks like you might have some time constraints & that you may not be able to achieve the desired Training Load within the confines of your available time. It’s possible that you could still achieve the target, but you’d likely need to choose slightly harder workouts, which will allow you to accumulate more XSS in the given amount of time. For high-intensity trainings, this is controlled by the XSS per Hour Preference.
It’s possible that your forecast is “very tight” such that a small change requires a lot of adjustments. This could mean that you’ll need to follow the plan pretty closely in order to achieve the result you’re looking for.
For example:
Today I did a session that was scheduled for tomorrow, so I pressed the adapt button again thinking it was just going to delete my training for tomorrow, but instead it kept it and I lost another 1W on my final result in June (from 240 to 239W), even though I’m training more! And even if it’s true that I’m over-training (which is clearly not the case), why doesn’t he delete my session tomorrow if it means I don’t lose a watt at the end? ?
I really don’t understand this new system
I think you get a different result if you press adapt tomorrow (the day after the workout). At least that is my experience. Not sure if it is a timezone issue or that Xert will only mark the day as completed once it is over.
But what you mention is the reason why I previously asked Xert to add a summary to the adapt forecast page explaining the difference in total XSS and the final fitness signature.
Was the original forecast run before or after the official release update?
That changed some things including predictions in target signature and goal numbers.
I don’t think it’s a matter of one ride triggering the changes. It was likely pending anyway.
Adapt Forecast rebalances the week ahead during first attempt then further out on the plan if that is not possible or if constraints have changed. Details here.
If you are simply swapping days out during the week you could ignore the red dot warning.
What are your current Program settings? (screenshot of Modify Plan table section)
Are you reasonably sure you can follow a plan that lasts for 47 weeks?
Is your long-range goal to peak for an event 40+ weeks away?
If you prefer viewing a populated calendar by all means stick with it. But you could alternately ride in Continuous ATP mode at a low or maintenance ramp rate until closer to your event date. For example, switch to Goal or Event when you’re 90 days out.
In the meantime, you could ride based on form and a changing schedule that isn’t tied to a forecast plan.
Since cycling is a subset of your training you probably want to “fitness test” your signature every month or so in case fitness changes occur due to training loads from your run/swim activities.
Yes my event is in June.
But if I do the continuous mode this winter, I’ll certainly be doing high-intensity training, which won’t be the case if I keep my preparation calendar for this event, so the preparation won’t be the same, will it?
You can try and use the Forecast AI update on the Program page rather than the Adapt Forecast. Remember though that there are lot of variables as to why your forecast changes. Generally a watt or two over the course of many months is more a rounding error especially since you’re not going to be able to follow the plan exactly. Always best to have a target that’s a bit more conservative than following a very strict plan, especially one that’s ends in 8 months!
If you’re concerned about the fluctuations, set your Signature Decay to “No Decay”. This will prevent your signature from going off track as you do the training but don’t do any breakthrough efforts.
We’ve been considering making No Decay the default since users may wonder as you have why their numbers are going down in the future for a forecast plan that was created and that they are following. The Signature Decay is there to allow users more opportunity to express their fitness and validate that they are indeed achieving the gains they had planned to have. It does create confusion as you have pointed out so we may make this change.
