A near breakthrough results in a 7 Watt lower FTP - again

Just had yet another near breakthrough and once again my FTP has dropped by 7 Watts. It would be fantastic if you could sort out your algorithms to stop this happening as it makes a nonsense of the concept of a breakthrough. If I want to raise my FTP I need to go slow and steady and not make any near breakthroughs or I pay the price. “Monster” breakthroughs get rewarded with an FTP jump it seems. I know I can flag the workout but honestly it raises questions about how the algorithms are performing that I should have to repeatedly do this. If I sound frustrated it is because I am. I really, really rate XERT as a training tool and have no intention of going elsewhere … I just wish you would sort out this anomoly.


It’s totally intentional and valid to get notified of declines in fitness. It would be a huge disservice to ignore these, especially if there is some very good reason for them, such as overtraining or change in power meters. Flagging them is the best way to deal with them if you feel they don’t represent a true decline in fitness.


Don’t think I’m overtraining, Power meter is rock solid (Assioma Duo’s calibrated every ride), coping with the workouts well. I just did my best ever 1:30 minute power, made a breakthrough. The ride I just did was a 15 minute KOM attempt with 1 monster (for me) effort and yet it is calculated to be a drop in fitness. I just don’t understand how that can be.

Was it a maximal effort? If so, then then adjustment to your signature may be valid. Sometimes the fakethroughs can help align your fitness signature parameters. The great thing about fakethroughs is that you have the opportunity to tell the system it was wrong. :slight_smile:

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It was pretty much maximal, I shut it down at the end of the segment but I was pretty much cooked at that point. What would you reccomend adjusting in my signature based on that knowledge. For now I have flagged it and my FTP is back where it was.

Unflag and wait for your next BT. Unless you’re needing a precise signature for training, you can go with the determined signature.

I’m in a taper now for a race at the weekend so precise numbers are not key, other than to stroke my wounded ego :slight_smile:

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@xertedbrain - Just following up, as I’ve had this issue occur a couple of times with similar levels of frustration. My VO2 Max intervals feel like threshold right now. What would the recommendation be if @stevecrabb were needing a precise signature for training?

We talk a lot about dealing with near breakthroughs on the podcasts so do have a listen.

The simplest thing to do is just flag the activity. This will ignore the decreases. If you are seeing a declining signature due to lack of breakthroughs, use the No Decay Signature Decay Method to keep numbers more in-line with what your training would indicate. If the near breakthrough only adjusts things by a few watts and you expect to get another one in the near future, you should just leave things be.


Thank you! I will look up all of those things! And the podcast.