Ramblings and random thoughts –
I’m more interested in a plan for an A event that pushes me to the limit on the way there based on what I’ve done in the past plus a reasonable improvement factor, tapers for the event, and allows me to max out at the event. Post-event recovery load be damned.
The problem will be catering to those with ABC events year-round, but I don’t think there should be more than one A event in a seasonal progression.
Weekend warriors may be best off going with XATA and an empty calendar if they don’t have any particular event/goal in mind other than a weekend group drop ride/race.
Competitive would mean maximum training effect for the event.
Recreational would mean sufficient training to complete the event; no podium dreams.
A recreational rider especially doesn’t really need to ride their event distance while training.
For example, prepping for a century doesn’t require more than half that distance in training. A 100-mile event might include rides up to 50 miles (around 3 hours for most rec riders). Half that time/distance would suffice for much of the training required.
Of course, to be competitive at an event is an entirely different matter but it’s not necessarily more distance that gets you there. With low/high/peak strain management you can hone things to a T. FAI looks to be on the right track,
Since Complete vs Compete have different goals and requirements what about a 3-position slider between recreational and competitive for the Setup Guide? Pick event type then quantify it with a slider position ranging between Complete It ↔ Middle of the Pack ↔ and Podium Position.
It appears Event Readiness will help handle this but could also be a pre-check factor for an event forecast.
Starting and ending TL for a forecast progression --.
When initially testing Goals I ran with it for a week which raised my avg XSS/day.
Then I cleared the forecast, played around with some other options including Event then returned to Goal and replicated initial Goal settings.
Forecast ran successfully but the days forward had a bump in XSS. More than I want to commit to at this time of the year.
What about an option where you define TL you want to start out with and the max TL you’re willing to commit to with the Goal date you define. For example, say I’m at 50 TL now and want to start a progression at 30 and cap it at 90 with goal date 115 days out from now. The FAI would complete the in-between with those parameters.
Essentially ignore my recent history and start me at this level. Start low(er), aim high.
In this scenario the potential improvement would be based on TL values. The target date improvement figure will be calculated for you.
On a related note, some users are at 4-5 stars and trying to create unrealistic forecasts. If you are already riding 20 hours/week, how reasonable is it to go to 30? You are either stuck with a lateral move (little or no gain) or the most appropriate response would be to forecast a taper/detraining period. I.e. you need to downgrade and take a break for X weeks if you want to progress and peak for your target date.
Availability –
I get why the forecast runs first without constraints but that can look strange with what appears to be too many rest days especially when you’re accustomed to shorter workouts and riding 5-6 days/week. However, when you view XSS stats by week on Planner plus view the XPMC chart with the forecast progression shown, the training pattern does look reasonable.
Once you curtail longer workouts by defining daily hours (example, 2 hours max for me during indoor season). the weekly XSS distribution changes with less rest days.
Even so I’m not sure you should forecast without defining some level of availability beforehand.
What if you ask for maximums as a pre-forecast requirement? Example, max workout duration/day, max days/week, and max hours/week that you are willing to commit to at this time. Then a pre-check routine would halt the process if your schedule and TL max would prohibit the forecast from running successfully.
90 minutes indoors is equivalent to 2+ outdoors and 2 hours is the most I want to do indoors but the forecast doesn’t know that. Not sure how to best handle this other than indicate a range rather than exact hr/min duration?
May not be practical, but could also be a forecast option to select indoor only or outdoor only while the default is indoor/outdoor with a duration range shown. Indoor/outdoor range being 45-60 min,1-1.5 hr, 2-2.75 hr, 3-4 hr, etc.
Bottom line: All-indoor training for 3 months is significantly less time than all-outdoors at the same TL level.
Once you do define a granular schedule, I’d like to see a Schedule tab appear under Planner Settings where you can view the current week’s schedule in table format and scroll forward week by week to see future weeks on the forecast.
Take that a step further and the current weekly schedule could remain defined even when a forecast is cleared. Then it could also be applied to XATA recommendations without a forecast on the Planner.
IOW a scrolling weekly schedule if a forecast is in play or a single weekly template if not.
Another issue is many users are selecting event dates and targets they already qualify for.
Some aren’t taking a close look at the Setup Guide table below the sliders before running the forecast. Then they are dismayed and mystified that TP goes down but TL declined with the settings they selected. Matchsticks shown next to current/target numbers might help if simply to indicate relative increase in orange/red. Or stop them from forecasting when conditions don’t warrant one.
A pop-up could say your settings will result in a decline in training/fitness or no gain. Are you sure you want to continue? They’ll probably be cases where someone may want to proceed and create a scheduled taper period of de-training.
Or the routine could also say something like “Your current TL and fitness are sufficient for the event you entered. Would you like to switch to a Focus Power goal improvement instead?”
If someone enters a goal/event date too far into the future, pop a message explaining why it’s better to start a progression X days before the goal/event date.
Rest days –
While rest days are also recovery days where fitness gains occur, seeing a bunch of them in a week is alarming if you’re not used to it. Plus, two or three in a row? I’ve done that on occasion this past summer and it worked well for me, but I’m sure many are not expecting that on their Planner. While the weekly XSS stats appear to be valid, it’s the distribution I question. I think that could be handled better with some pre-forecast maximums.
I would think training 2x/week is a minimum requirement. 3-5x is likely the norm. 5/6 needs a careful balance (not enough rest/recovery if too much intensity). Plus a few will claim 7 days/week doesn’t hurt them, but they’ll likely never know so maybe a forecast is a good thing.
Adapt Forecast –
Looks like this is getting better with each update so I removed many of my notes on this.
Needs to be a balance as to when you may not need to run it such as swapping days in a week.
Currently a single activity can trigger the red dot alert. Should the logic be to wait for two days or more or show orange if starting to go off track then clear if X days later you are back on track or go red if not. Some may want to shuffle their weekly load and wait until end of week to decide. I suppose it works that way now as long as you are aware of the option but a gradual approach over X days could clear the dot automatically. I.e. you’re still on schedule. No need to adapt.
Or if drag and drop is added in future support the ability to rearrange the week’s forecast without consequence.
Autogen –
A future Autogen function could shorten/extend or otherwise adjust existing workouts on recommended lists to match the XSS and strain ratio goal for the day.
IOW Autogen on steroids that uses your selection as a template. It’s still an AI Generated workout for the day but the entire workout library becomes a resource for templates. Include a reality check to prevent abuse by comparing the numbers first. “Hey, this workout already meets today’s goals. No mods required.”
Okay, that’s enough for today.