Precipitous TP drop over 3 days?

Hi Folks. My Progression chart shows a large TP drop from one workout to the next (2 days off between them) from 290w to 241w about 2 weeks ago. I did one more week of moderate training and then did took a recovery week (2 days off and 4x workouts of 40-75 XSS). I have two questions:

(1) what caused the big dip of TP on January 20th? All of these rides from Jan 1-27 have been indoor on a Wahoo Kickr using either workout files (interval training), or free riding or race events on Zwift. January 27th is my only outside ride of 2018. All of the files since Jan 30 are Xert files. FWIW, I did delete and re-upload the files from January 20 - 25, in the hopes that Xert would recalc my signature and smooth out that drop, but it did not.

(2) The Training Advisor is saying I’m still very tired and should continue doing recovery workouts, where I’m assuming after 6 recovery days last week (even though I did ride hard on the weekend) , I should be able to get back to serious interval training. Is this possibly also related to the big anomally back on Jan 20th?

Thanks for any help, and sorry if these questions have been asked before. Progchart2 Progchart1

Had a quick look. Read our FAQ on wrong signatures. You have a lot of signatures that appear to have gotten off track. I would suggest you do a Progression Recalculation and see if the system corrects itself automatically. You’ve had a pretty big jump recently which is very suspicious. You may need to remove those activities with bad data.

Hi Armando, Thanks for this advice. I did a Progressive Recalculation and my TP seems more like what I was expecting. It might be a touch higher than I thought (now 291w - I was expecting around 275-280), but I will continue with this fitness sig for a while and see how the training advisor goes.

The Advisor does still say I’m very fatigued and recommends short recovery efforts. I’m not feeling 100% fresh but I am definitely not fatigued either. My gut is telling me to train as I normally would as I am starting a new build block this week after recovering last week, but I am curious about the advisor’s recommendation. Thanks for any insight.

The advisor makes suggestions and inferences based on your data. You know yourself better than anyone. Use the suggestions to inform your decision, not necessarily make it for you.

Thanks Armando