How accurate are the TP predictions for the training programs? I think mine is way off

If June 1st is your TED (target event date) shouldn’t the bar show you in mid-Base not early Build?

Agressive-1 is an XSS ramp rate of 4. Assuming you can handle that amount of intensity and strain, the prediction is a gain of X watts in X weeks.
Of course prediction versus reality depends on what actually happens in between. :slight_smile:
Can you handle that rate of improvement for the next 45+ days? Will you need any rest weeks?
If you are able to handle the load and recover while keeping the pacer needle pointing up, then the projections are possible.
A more likely scenario is you hit your natural ceiling (for this round of training) and level off.
If you find yourself getting cooked trying to reach those goals dial down IR for a week and take some days off to recover. That is the beauty of Xert. You can dial things up or down depending on you how well you are responding to the training load you selected. You are in charge versus a pre-populated calendar that doesn’t know how you’re reacting.

Other factors are your current signature and how your progression is proceeding so far. Check your Progression chart trend lines over the last three months (XPMC, Stress, Strain, FS). Stress, for example, will be ascending to match your ramp rate and show your split between low, high, and peak stress. Obviously you can’t climb that hill forever. :smiley:

At the end of the day it’s a prediction based on the IR rate you selected, your current fitness level and signature, and assumption you can continue to handle the prescribed strain over the time allotted. YMMV :slight_smile:

My first full season on Xert I did not reach projected TP but I did reach the same FTP figure as the you-know-what app I burned out on. I retook their RAMP test to confirm TP was close to FTP. I was happy with that number as the path to get there was very different on Xert (no burnout, nearly all workouts at 100% and few DNF intervals).
This year I am confident I will meet the projections and so far I have completed all recommended workouts at 100%. I am three quarters of the way through Build.
For reference I have never set IR higher than Moderate-2 (ramp rate = 3). I may try upping it for a few weeks later this year depending how I feel. But let’s face it, not all of us are capable of reaching 4-5 star status or want to. I’ll be happy with 3-1/2 stars. Your goals may be loftier. :slight_smile: Hope you get there.

Reference:
Improvement Rate – Xert (baronbiosys.com)

Beginner’s Guide: Improvement Rate – Xert (baronbiosys.com)

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