How accurate are the TP predictions for the training programs? I think mine is way off

I’m in the early build phase of my training program, set to Aggressive-1. This is my first time doing a Xert training program. It is tell me that by June 1st, my TP will be a whopping 46 watts greater than it is today.

I’m just not seeing how this can be possible. Based on my body weight (featherweight climber), that kind of FTP/weight increase would be an absolutely monster gain for me within that short time frame.

Interested to hear how accurate these predictions have been for others doing the training programs.

Hi, I’m in a similar position and gaining about 2W per week so far and only now starting the peak phase in which the workouts are hitting FTP with a target date of 20th March. That’s about 10% per week. So depending on your rider profile and current FTP, that sounds possible.

My past experience has been that fitness improvements per season hit diminishing returns, rather than go up linearly… but I guess we will see Xert’s magic. If the predicted gains hold, I will be absolutely blown away.

If June 1st is your TED (target event date) shouldn’t the bar show you in mid-Base not early Build?

Agressive-1 is an XSS ramp rate of 4. Assuming you can handle that amount of intensity and strain, the prediction is a gain of X watts in X weeks.
Of course prediction versus reality depends on what actually happens in between. :slight_smile:
Can you handle that rate of improvement for the next 45+ days? Will you need any rest weeks?
If you are able to handle the load and recover while keeping the pacer needle pointing up, then the projections are possible.
A more likely scenario is you hit your natural ceiling (for this round of training) and level off.
If you find yourself getting cooked trying to reach those goals dial down IR for a week and take some days off to recover. That is the beauty of Xert. You can dial things up or down depending on you how well you are responding to the training load you selected. You are in charge versus a pre-populated calendar that doesn’t know how you’re reacting.

Other factors are your current signature and how your progression is proceeding so far. Check your Progression chart trend lines over the last three months (XPMC, Stress, Strain, FS). Stress, for example, will be ascending to match your ramp rate and show your split between low, high, and peak stress. Obviously you can’t climb that hill forever. :smiley:

At the end of the day it’s a prediction based on the IR rate you selected, your current fitness level and signature, and assumption you can continue to handle the prescribed strain over the time allotted. YMMV :slight_smile:

My first full season on Xert I did not reach projected TP but I did reach the same FTP figure as the you-know-what app I burned out on. I retook their RAMP test to confirm TP was close to FTP. I was happy with that number as the path to get there was very different on Xert (no burnout, nearly all workouts at 100% and few DNF intervals).
This year I am confident I will meet the projections and so far I have completed all recommended workouts at 100%. I am three quarters of the way through Build.
For reference I have never set IR higher than Moderate-2 (ramp rate = 3). I may try upping it for a few weeks later this year depending how I feel. But let’s face it, not all of us are capable of reaching 4-5 star status or want to. I’ll be happy with 3-1/2 stars. Your goals may be loftier. :slight_smile: Hope you get there.

Improvement Rate – Xert (

Beginner’s Guide: Improvement Rate – Xert (


Agree, good answer and would just add that the hours recommended per week is a current recommendation - as your TL goes up, so will the required hours to keep maintaining the aggressive improvement rate…

You are right, I’m the mid-Base phase. Let’s see how it goes then! As you say, I love how flexible and quantified everything is with Xert.

I am now 2 months into the program. Have probably set the progression too high at aggressive 1 and an event at end of April. The base phase was too easy and could have been shorter but half way through build the intensity is picking up. Demand is 15hrs/week and each day my xss is docked over a 100pts based on previous week. Harder you work the more your are docked. Interesting that often the recommended workout is 1hr and the xss is not enough to cover the deficit leaving me in a deficit trajectory in xss. So two workouts or 2hr sessions to stay on track and virtually no days off. I don’t see how you can keep the needle pointed upwards and take days off or you have to change your goals to compensate. It’s hard to claw your way back to xss neutral once you are down a bunch of points.

If you’re having difficulty maintaining the XATA training pacer near the 12 o’clock position without feeling very fatigued, that’s a good sign that your improvement rate is set too high. You can try reducing it for a week to maintenance which should allow you to recover quite a bit of freshness before increasing it again. Many times athletes will find it difficult to maintain such an aggressive training rate all the way through to the taper week(s). The nice part with Xert is that you can adjust the improvement rate at any point in time.


Oops – left this as a draft from awhile back. :slight_smile:

I had a similar opinion of base phase the first time I completed a phased progression in Xert, but the results were very positive compared to other platforms I have used.
Base should be low intensity with Xert’s hybrid polarized approach. That’s why it works well for most riders. :slight_smile:
It is normal to carry a slight deficit. Any rest day (or deficit) is absorbed into the rolling week moving forward.
Your goal is 11am-1pm position on the needle but it can waver depending how you allocate your weekly hours.
It is up to you to decide on easy, rest, long, and hard days. If you follow a consistent pattern XATA will recommend similar workouts the following week.
Most users don’t start at Aggressive-1 but the point is you can dial IR up/down depending how you respond to the prescribed TL over the phased progression.
Most users with an Aggressive IR would be taking a rest week at some point and during that week dial IR down.
When you select higher ramp rates you are increasing both time commitment and intensity.
As @wescaine mentions “as your TL goes up, so will the required hours to keep maintaining the aggressive improvement rate”.

I realize you are many days in with plenty of experience now, but you may pick up some pointers in this post –
Beginner questions - Support - Xert Community Forum (

I am about three weeks away from my first TED this year, still completing all recommended workouts at 100%. However, I am not feeling as eager to toss in a BT workout like I did while in Base and Build. I’ll wait and see how Peak finishes out to compare the prediction.


Forgot to update this thread when I reached my first TED for this year on April 4.
I got within 5 pts of the prediction. That’s close enough for me. :slight_smile:
I also made a mistake on last BT attempt to verify my signature. I meant to select a Ronnestad workout as my “target event” which would have been the first time riding that type of workout. When I realized my mistake (Let the Sparks Fly) I didn’t go all out as planned so only got a bronze BT with minor boost in TP. I had more left in the tank at the BT juncture but not enough for a do over. :wink: