FTP drop after a Breakthrough

Hi Armando. I had a breakthrough on Saturday during a long(ish) endurance ride when I pushed on a hill early in the ride - but specifically not intending to get a breakthrough. My calculated FTP before that was 262w, and after the breakthrough it is now 251w. I can guess the reason is because I haven’t had a breakthrough for 4+ months (Oct 5) and maybe that’s too long for the Fitness Signature calculator to figure out actual FTP? The reason I ask is because I have been able to handle most of the workouts or XSS requirements set at 262w FTP lately, and I think dropping down to 251w will be too easy.

Background: I was out of the country on a bike without a PM for all of November & December. My last breakthrough was just before that trip on Oct 5 @ 296w. I did a 200k race in mid-November in South Africa, then started transitioning to off-season riding without structure - but still riding almost every day (beautiful places for it around Cape Town BTW). I used your FAQ page to manually add rides guesstimating XSS during that time.

The big drop came when I got home an d got the Flu, which affected me hard for 2 weeks and then a bit less for 2 more, but I feel I have been healthy for 2 weeks now. The drop in FTP to 262w I feel is accurate, but after yesterday’s breakthrough, I’m not sure why it dropped a further 10 points. Sorry for the long question. I appreciate any insight from you. Thanks, Kevin

Hi Kevin. Your Fitness Signature can decline after a near breakthrough. Some times this reflects some detraining or perhaps something else that is not working for you - health or other life stresses for example. Other times you simply didn’t go absolutely as hard as you possiblly could and left some in reserve. If you feel it was the latter and the drop in numbers isn’t reflective of your fitness, simply flag the activity to let Xert know that you wish to have the signature from this activity ignored. This will get propagated to today.

Thanks for the info, Armando. Given that the breakthrough was only 20 minutes into an almost 3hr endurance ride, and the fact I was handling workouts at 262w and my flu is finally gone, I will go ahead and flag the activity.

Onward. Thanks!